With the Russian invasion of Ukraine raging on, it seems sacrilegious to be doing an Oscar forecast. People are fleeing their homes and country to save their lives, and I’m wondering who’s going to win an Oscar. Shameful! So, to cut the guilt, I will try to keep this short.
The 94th Academy Awards will be held on March 27th, 2022, and televised live at 8 pm ET on ABC., There are changes coming.
1) Three hosts to speed things up: Regina Hall (Scary Host), Amy Schumer (Comic Host), and Wanda Sykes (Acerbic Host). At worst, there will be three boring monologues. At best, a Hollywood condemnation of the Ukraine invasion, and maybe, a stealth appearance from embattled President Volodymyr Zelensky. Yay!
2) Eight categories to be cut from the main telecast. The awards for film editing, sound, makeup/hairstyling, original score, production design, documentary short, animated short, and live action short will be announced an hour before the show begins; winners will be edited into the live telecast. Unsure if that will happen; but why deny these nominees and winners of their live moments of fame?
3) A new Fan Favorite award for any movie shown in 2021 will be determined by tweeting the movie title and "#OscarsFanFavorite" or by filling out an online form. Voting closes on Thursday March 24th. It's unclear if the winner will get an Oscar statuette, but the winner will be announced during the TV ceremony. This is self-destructive. It undermines all that the Academy stands for, honoring talent instead of popularity. It destroys the Oscar prestige (aka, snob appeal), and essentially plagiarises the Peoples’ Choice Award.
That said, here’s the 2022 Fearless Forecast!
BEST PICTURE
Belfast, CODA, Don't Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story. –
The old standard of a great, sweeping film with scope and majesty has long gone. Belfast and West Side Story belong to that category and should win if voters were older and wiser.
Belfast. Kenneth Branagh’s tale of his real childhood in Northern Ireland. We see how the movies played a part in his dealing with the ongoing troubles, and how it influenced his future career. I love this movie. It so heartfelt, real, and relatable; not a pretentious collage-like 2018’s Roma which was a semi-auto bio for Mexican Director Alfonso Cuaron. And it’s loaded with Van Morrison music and film clips of what was playing then. Such a personal and wonderful film.
West Side Story. It’s a remake of the 1967 film that starred Natalie Wood, Rita Moreno, Georg Chakiris, Richard Beymer, and Russ Tumblyn. The casting of a Latina for Maria; more Spanish in the dialogue; and making Anybodys a trans character, was acceptable. But creating the new character Valentina (played by Moreno) who gets to sing Somewhere in the finale instead of a dying Tony with Maria, served no purpose. Big mistake!. The original won 10 Oscars including Best Picture and Director. The remake is only up for seven, and will only win one, for Ariana DeBose. It just got too “woke.“
Nightmare Alley is a film noir gem, with exquisite lighting, costumes, and set design, but again too old for the Instagram age.
The Power of the Dog is really a western with a repressed gay lead with pretentious overlays. The critics love it, the ordinary Joes and janes can’t fathom what the brouhaha is all about. See adapted screenplay, below.
Drive My Car is a cerebral chauffeured ride, with Anton Chekhov’s Uncle Vanya playing within the movie. Unlike 2020’s Parasite, this will only win International Feature Film, because it's dour and serious, bogged by subtitles, and an almost 3-hour runtime.
Dune is stylized sci-fi of a beloved novel, but is but the first part, with part two coming soon, and the voters would want to see the whole thing before handing it the top prize.
Don’t Look Up, is a satire of a very possible real danger. But when you see Oscar winners DiCaprio, Streep, Lawrence, and Blanchett all hamming it up, you’d laugh with them, but will you vote for their movie? I don’t think so.
Licorice Pizza is a coming-of-age movie with a “70s flashback to bare midriffs, and waterbeds, when teen entrepreneurs really hacked it up without the benefit of kickstart or Go Fund Me. Nostalgic fun, with some great guest appearances ( Bradley Cooper as Jon Peters) but it was an era long past with no overall feel-good vibe.
King Richard is the true story of Venus’ and Serenas’ Dad and his plan, even before their births, to make them tennis stars. He succeeded. Good story, great acting, but as a sports drama, it may have limited appeal
And finally , there’s CODA (children of deaf adults), another heart-warming coming of age story of a female teen who is the only hearing person in her deaf, quirky, loving family. She has a teen crush, loves to sing, and wants out of the family’s fishing business. Familiar story, but imbued with popular tunes, the freshness of sign language, and a remarkably affectionate family. It’s fun, enjoyable, and relatable even for those who are not hearing impaired. For all these reasons, it is my pick to win the Best Picture Oscar.
FAN FAVORITE—Latest tally shows “Army of the Dead” leading, followed by “Cinderella.“
DIRECTOR. Jane Campion for Power of the Dog. She also wrote and produced it. If she wins, she’ll only be the third female to win Best Director after last year’s Chloe Zhao for Nomadland, and Kathryn Bigelow for Hurt Locker in 2010. In 1994 she won the Best Original Screenplay for The Piano. She lost to Steven Spielberg for the Director’s Oscar, and her movie The Piano, lost to Spielberg’s Schindler’s List for Best Picture. Now, it’s a rematch: Campion and Power of the Dog versus Spielberg and West Side Story. She will get the Director’s Oscar, plus the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, and just maybe, the Best Picture Oscar too.
ACTRESS. An open field. Jessica Chastain would probably win this for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. She was believably good, and sang in the movie, and love/hatred for Tammy Faye is still in the minds of many. And she’s never won before. Nicole Kidman, who’s a great actress, was miscast in Being The Ricardos. She won the 2002 Oscar for The Hours, where she played Virginia Woolf with a prosthetic nose. But this time around, despite the widened cheeks and other prosthetics, viewers still can’t believe that she’s Lucy Ricardo/Lucille Ball. It just didn’t work, mostly because all those I Love Lucy TVs show are ingrained in viewers minds and close to their hearts. They don’t want anyone else playing her.
Kristen Stewart was surprisingly credible as Princess Diana and is my dark horse candidate. But royalty fatigue has set in; unless its shading Meghan Markle, or more sexual charges against Prince Andrew, voters are bored with anything royal.
Penelope Cruz’s exceptional talent is burdened by subtitles for non -Spanish speakers, but she has wide international support. Then we have Olivia Coleman. Again? For a nuanced role, as a mysterious tourist in Greece, who steals a child’s doll! Great acting, but slow, and languid, so voters will rather go for the singing, crying Jessica as Tammy Faye.
ACTOR. This one is a lock for Will Smith. Generally lovable star, and great performance of a real character with the blessing of the Williams’ family.
Second bet is Andrew Garfield, who plays the talented playwright Jonathan Larsen who created Rent. He acts, sings, dances, and just embodies the role with great finesse in Tick Boom. Benedict Cumberbatch, the lead in Power of the Dog, gives a sterling performance typical of him, plus banjo playing. But being the “bad” guy in the movie would hurt his chances unless he rises to the level of Anthony Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter. Javier Bardem, plays Desi Arnaz/Desi Ricardo, the Cuban spouse of Kidman’s Lucille, who like Nicole Kidman, is miscast. No matter how good he acts, he doesn’t look like Desi Arnaz and that mismatch stays in viewers minds, and like Kidman’s case, causes a collective disbelief in everything else. And then there’s Denzel Washington for the Tragedy of Macbeth. Alas, me thinks as has been foretold, the play and player is cursed if you say forth its name.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS. Ariana DeBose, as Anita from West Side Story. From I Want to Be in America to her plaintive A Boy Like That, she sang, danced, and acted her way to our hearts. Kirsten Dunst plays the practical, suffering, distressed, and tortured wife driven to drinking in Power of the Dog. I don’t think her character was fully developed, so her emotional breakdown when she couldn’t play the piano after several hours of rehearsal, seemed contrived. Caitrioana Balfe from Belfast should have been here instead of Judi Dench, who plays the grandmother. She is rarely seen on screen, but then again, she’s Dame Judi, and had won this for just 5-minute screen time in Shakespeare in Love. Aunjanue Ellis as the mother of Venus and Serena, and King Richard’s wife, plays a truly supporting role but not much else. Jessie Buckley plays a younger version of Olivia Coleman in The Lost Daughter in flashbacks. She looks ingenuous but easily abandons her daughters and husband for an intellectual fling. Fine acting, but she’s no Anita/Ariana.
SUPPORTING ACTOR. Jude Hill, the kid from Belfast is my choice, but he’s not nominated. But Ciaran Hinds, his stocky Belfast grandfather who dispenses practical advice on love and life in clear black and white, is up for the award. The other kid from Oz, Kodi Smit-McPhee, from Power of the Dog, who while being bullied for his refined interests and demeanor, chips away at his step-uncle’s hard veneer, is my bet to win. His stepfather, Jesse Plemons, is also nominated, as the stoic, suit-wearing, more refined and often berated (he was called “Fatso”) by his own brother Phil. J.K. Simmons as William Frawley, who plays the character Fred Mertz, in Being the Ricardos, is also nominated but his chances are doomed by the miscast of the leads. Then, there’s dark horse Troy Kotsur, a real life deaf since birth actor playing the rumbunctious deaf father in CODA. He won the BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice, and the SAG Award, so he may get the Oscar as well, and be the first deaf male actor to win.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY. Belfast. Kenneth Branagh brings his childhood drama to words and film. And he did It while isolating during the height of Covid-19. From something bad, something wonderful emerges! Second choice Licorice Pizza--Paul Thomas Anderson’s imagined tale of his childhood, set in ‘70s. The title is the name of a former chain of records shop in Southern Cali, not an actual pizza flavor. But I’m sure someone will bake it!
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY. The Power of the Dog. Jane Campion’s faithful adaption of Thomas Savage’s novel, of two brothers long living as cowboys in rugged Big Sky Montana, and how the sensitive one weds a widow with a teenage son and brings them to the ranch which the other brother sees as a disturbance of the equilibrium of their existence, so he makes life terrible for the newcomers, but in the process, it awakens his own refined nature he has long suppressed. The title is alluded to in what Peter sees in the shape of the nearby hill and in lines of Psalm 22: 20 read by Peter in the film’s end: “Deliver my soul from the sword; my darling from the power of the dog.” Now, go discuss among yourselves!
CINEMATOGRAPHY. Dune. Greig Fraser is the favorite for his camera work in this sprawling saga of Timothée Chalamet’s messianic Paul Atreides and his dreams and visions in the planet Arrakis with the indigenous Fremen, and giant sandworms. Plus, the water planet Caladan, and Giedi Prime with its shades of black beyond compare, from obsidian plains to oily seas.
SOUND. Dune. Hans Zimmer is the critic’s fave. He last won in 1994 for The Lion King. Close by, and second choice—Jonny Greenwood for The Power of the Dog.
VISUAL EFFECTS. Dune. DNEG (double Negative Visual Effects (UK)), the technical genius company is the one to beat. It has won the guild VES Awards and scored awards for its models of the Royal Ornithoper (that dragon fly looking helicopter), effects simulations for the dunes of Arrakis, and composition and lighting for the attack on Arrakeen, the capital of the planet Arrakis. Second choice-- No Time to Die. Aston Martin DB5 high speed chase in the ancient town of Matera, Italy; the singing trawler with Bond locked inside (sigh, farewell 007!)
PRODUCTION DESIGN. Dune. Production designer Patrice Vermette and set decorator Zsuzsanna Sipos for their ambitious and imaginative world building. Amazing! Second Choice--Nightmare Alley. Film Noir elegance; a working carnival with a scary funhouse; facades of elegance of art deco of high society hotel and nightclubs; and Cate Blanchett’s stylish Rorschach detailed psychiatrist’s’ office.
FILM EDITING. Dune. Politics, religion, prophetic visions –plenty of story lines layered beautifully in the narrative and film flow. Second choice—King Richard.
COSTUME DESIGN. Cruella. Jenny Beavan goes for her third Oscar. Flamboyant work for creating Emma Stone’s fantastical wardrobe; that deconstructed red dress, with no Dalmatians injured in the process.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING. I can’t really make up my mind! First choice: Cruella. Subversive period pieces; ‘70s punk look leading to the eventual two-toned black-and-white hair; and a painted Future mask well before COVID-19! Brava! Second choice--Coming 2 America. Afro-punk vibe, aging Prince Akeem and Semmi, creating artistic hair for the Nextdorian tribe members. Third choice--The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Complex transformation; she ages though the movie; 10 custom-made wigs in collaboration with other wigs for Tammy’s trademark multi-layer style. Sorry, Lady Gaga, not your year!
ORIGINAL SCORE. Dune. Hams Zimmer. Beauty and danger of the planet Arrakis—wind on the sand, and percussion of the monster sandworms, and a choir of female voices for the vision score.
ORIGINAL SONG. Hmm…. First choice: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die, Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell. Bond themes have always scored big at the Oscars. Second Choice: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, by Lin-Manuel Miranda who’s still hot from Hamilton, and In The Heights. The more popular song, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”, isn’t nominated, so voters will may or may not vote for this instead.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE. Drive My Car. It’s profound; in Japanese, with subtitles, and Chinese, Korean, Pilipino, and even sign language in the play-within-movie staging of Chekov’s Uncle Vanya which was originally in Russian. How international is that? It’s minimalist; very restrained acting; everyone’s respectful even when admitting to having had sex with someone else’s wife. (Definitely not American). There are long scenes inside a car, of the car passing through bridges, tunnels, roads and highway. Watching it for three hours is an ordeal. But that’s the point. Life is a constant journey. It may be long, and we may suffer, but we must go on. Ponder this: the car is a left-hand, Swedish Saab in a left- side driving Japan. Second choice --The Worst Person in the World from Norway about a woman who defies traditional female stereotypes in her search for love and career. Hun bestemmer seg selv!
ANIMATED FEATURE. Hands down, Encanto. Great movie, spectacular storyboarding, excellent music. But the story is a bit odd. Youngest daughter doesn’t get any special gifts unlike her siblings who have super strength, can morph, talk to the animals, or change the weather. She learns to survive despite being normal, she unravels and outs a hidden family secret, and at the end, she gets rewarded with a special gift. What? I thought being yourself and striving to your full potential was the reward in itself. Note: don’t expect solid logic or life lessons from a Disney movie.
SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION. The Long Goodbye. Produced by and starring Riz Ahmed (Best actor nominee for 2020’s Sound of Metal) and directed by Aneil Karia. A planned wedding turns into disaster as a right-wing group abducts the family.
SHORT FILM, ANIMATED. Robin, Robin. Story of a clumsy bird with an identity crisis driving the point that our differences makes us stronger. Created by Dan Ojari and Mikey Please. From Aardman Animations, released by Netflix.
DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT. Toss up. First choice: The Queen of Basketball, Second: Choice: Three Songs for Benazir.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE. Summer of Soul is the never-before-seen footage of the Harlem Cultural Festival that took place over six Sundays in summer of 1969. It features a 19-year-old Stevie Wonder, Mahalia Jackson, Mavis Staples, Nina Simone, Gladys Night and the Pips, The 5th Dimension, and other stars. Must see!
That’s it. Took longer than expected. But all fun!
Thank you and Good Night!
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Our guest contributor - Vidor Nosce
Vidor describes himself as a Filipino 'transplant' working as a tax research attorney in the US. He is an art, architecture and film enthusiast. The pandemic hasn't stopped him from watching movies.